A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations

Comparing the non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies different nations employed to combat COVID-19 is a key step in preparing for future pandemics. Conventional approaches to this problem focus on identifying and ranking individual NPI effects. These efforts are complicated by vastly different political, economic, and social conditions among nations, which we refer to collectively as national framework conditions (NFCs). Furthermore, NPIs are typically applied as packages of interventions, which makes identifying their independent effects challenging. In addition, conventional approaches to studying NPI effects frequently neglect the economic and social consequences of these measures. Here, we introduce a novel, scenario-based approach to understanding NPI effects across nations. Our method couples simple epidemiological, behavioral, and economic models, and allows us to transfer NPI strategies from a reference nation to a focal nation while preserving the packaged nature of NPIs and controlling for NFCs. We conclude by considering future extensions to our framework and discussing its potential to facilitate NPI inter-comparisons worldwide.